The College of Cardinals is set to go into seclusion within the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel to elect the new Pope.
While the papal election is held in complete secrecy, artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots appear to hold their own opinions on who the likely new pontiff will be.
On May 7, approximately 133 cardinal-electors are anticipated to start taking part in the voting process. A significant number of these electors were appointed by the recently deceased Pope Francis, and according to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, this could potentially “shape the outcome” since many of them are newcomers to their roles.
The cardinals will deliberate on identifying the most suitable candidate, whether they should focus on maintaining continuity or driving change, ensuring broad international representation, addressing the decline of spirituality in Europe, and finding someone capable of bridging the gap between the conservative and progressive factions within the Church.
We've chosen to seek predictions from OpenAI's ChatGPT, Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Google’s Gemini 1.5, xAI's Grok-2, and DeepSeek regarding which way the election seems to be heading.
It is important to recognize that chatbots tend to "hallucinate" – generating incorrect answers – as they develop an ability to identify statistical patterns within the data they have processed. This data primarily originates from publicly accessible online content found on the internet.
The frontrunner: Pietro Parolin
No clear sign of agreement like white smoke emerged regarding the selection of the next pope amongst the major Large Language Models (LLMs). Instead, the contest largely boiled down to a head-to-head between front-runners: Italy’s Pietro Parolin and the Philippines’ Luis Antonio Tagle.
Prior to responding, ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok-2 mentioned that the conclave is renowned for being highly unpredictable and might readily choose a candidate who isn’t included in the list.
Gemini’s 1.5 and Grok-2 characterized Parolin as often being mentioned as the leading candidate due to his significant role within the Catholic Church, having held the position of Vatican Secretary of State since 2013.
In his capacity, Parolin handled the Vatican’s diplomatic ties with various nations and was responsible for overseeing the administration of the Holy See. Essentially, Grok-2 referred to him as the "deputy pope."
Parolin has served as a diplomat in various roles, including postings in Nigeria, Mexico, and Venezuela. As an ambassador, Gemini 1.5 said he’s been involved in very high-level diplomatic situations like nuclear non-proliferation efforts.
Parolin is also considered an expert on the Middle East, according to the Vatican, and is attributed with reopening a dialogue between Israelis and Palestinians.
Yet, even though Parolin is seen as a "continuity candidate" for Pope Francis' agenda, Grok-2 notes that he’s been criticised for a more conservative stance on issues like same-sex marriage.
Gemini described him as the "most senior cardinal bishop under the age of 80," and as such, is expected to preside over the 2025 conclave.
According to Grok-2 and Gemini, Parolin has the best chance of emerging victorious with probabilities standing at 31 percent and as high as 30 percent correspondingly.
The prominent candidate: Luis Tagliarde
ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok-2 also identified Cardinal Tagle from the Philippines as a "strong contender".
The so-called "Asian Francis" as ChatGPT identifies him, Tagle is seen as a progressive, especially on inclusivity for the LGBTQ+ community and divorced Catholics, making him well-placed to continue Pope Francis's legacy.
This "advocacy for social justice" and his international profile make him "a prominent figure in the Church," especially among the cardinals who are looking for more reform, ChatGPT continued.
"As a Filipino, Tagle would symbolise the swiftly expanding Church in Asia and the Global South," ChatGPT noted.
Gemini states that Tagle enjoys significant support from progressive factions within the Church, who wish to uphold Pope Francis’s tradition of focusing on the underprivileged and marginalized.
Grok-2 credits his experience as the former Archbishop of Manila as an example of his leadership skills.
ChatGPT put Tagle's chances of winning at around 35 per cent, but it could be lower if the cardinals resist following Pope Francis's path or decide to vote in a European pope "for stability," which would mean voting in a compromise candidate.
Grok-2 put Tagle’s chances at 22 per cent, citing betting platform Polymarket as its source.
The 'compromising votes': Jean-Marc Aveline and Pierbattista Pizzaballa
The large language models showed considerable variance in their views regarding whom the conclave might support as a "compromise candidate" should the cardinals fail to reach an agreement.
France's Jean-Marc Aveline, who serves as the Archbishop of Marseille, has been pinpointed as a consensus choice by both Grok-2 and ChatGPT. Inside the Church, Aveline is recognized for his efforts in "interfaith dialogue," notably with Islam, as indicated by Grok-2.
Aveline is also at an advantage because of his "low-profile" in Vatican politics and "lack of Italian fluency," Grok-2 said, that could position him as a compromise for "those wanting a fresh, pastoral leader without strong factional ties".
ChatGPT had a very different list of compromise candidates than Grok and Gemini; it listed Pierbattista Pizzaballa from Italy, Jean-Claude Hollerich from Luxembourg, Cristobal Lopez Romero from Spain, and Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Pizzaballa - ChatGPT’s top compromise candidate - is a standout for the chatbot because he was recently elevated to cardinal status by Pope Francis in 2023, which "signals trust" from the previous pope.
The current Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem could be seen as "ideologically balanced and global in outlook," as well as someone who appeals to reformers but doesn’t alienate conservatives.
The outliers: Mario Grech and Matteo Zuppi
The AIs also mentioned figures whom they deemed to be less likely successors to Pope Francis, including a name that has been floated as one of the top contenders.
Gemini threw its support behind Malta’s Cardinal Mario Grech, the Secretary of the Synod of Bishops, with vague phrases like "he has shown ability to create balance within the Church".
Grok-2 supports Italy’s Matteo Zuppi, seen by many as a leading candidate and another compromise vote because he could be seen as a neutral choice for cardinals who are looking for a non-polarising figure to lead the reformers.
Hungary’s Cardinal Peter Erdo is also considered a compromise candidate by Grok-2, but ChatGPT and Gemini identify him as the leading candidate among conservatives.
Gemini also mentioned that Parolin would be a compromise candidate as well as the frontrunner. When asked to clarify, Gemini said that if the conclave becomes divided, he could still emerge as a compromise choice because of his "qualities".
Refusals to answer
Both DeepSeek and Anthropic’s Claude 3.7 sonnet indicated that Pope Francis remains in his position as pope. The information from these chatbots, which have knowledge cut-offs of July 2024 and October 2024 respectively, supports this statement.
When a vtrikNext reporter corrected DeepSeek by stating that the Pope passed away in April 2025, DeepSeek responded that it could not verify facts instantly and presumed we were presenting a "what-if situation" or suggesting there might have been an error.
As DeepSeek guided vtrikNext through its reasoning live, it examined the historical patterns of papal elections, analyzed various contributing elements, and considered alterations within the College of Cardinals prior to offering an educated prediction.
It was indicated that the subsequent Pope would depend on the emphasis of the conclave. Should this reflect the Church’s expansion in the Global South, then Cardenal Tagle together with Dieudonné Nzapalainga from the CAR or Laurent Monsengwo Besunzu from the DRC might be considered.
DeepSeek also listed some European candidates, like Parolin, Christoph Schonborn from Austria, or Jean-Claude Hollerich from Luxembourg, as reformist voices.
On the conservative side, it suggested Robert Sarah from Guinea or Marcello Semeraro from Italy.
When vtrikNext revised Anthropic, it mentioned that the Church is experiencing a period of "sede vacante"—Latin for "vacant see," which refers to the timeframe when the position of pope is unfilled—and provided an overview of how the conclave functions.
It stated that it lacks details on who will become the next pope since this "depends on the discussions within the College of Cardinals."
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