Shortly before new residential zoning regulations were implemented, a real estate flyer landed in Richard Arbon's mailbox.
"It talked about the activity centres and was encouraging us to talk to them if we wanted to sell our property," he said.
Mr Arbon lives in the leafy and historic suburb of Camberwell in Melbourne's inner east, where huge zoning changes designed to create more housing near established infrastructure are expected to significantly change his neighbourhood.
Across Melbourne, the Victorian government has announced it will create 60 of these "activity centres" — where it hopes much greater density, higher building limits and faster approval processes will speed up development and significantly increase housing supply.
Camberwell is one of 10 pilot centres where the zoning changes have just been gazetted and where residents will first see change.
Developments between six and 12-storeys are now possible around the railway station and shopping precinct under the new zoning, which is largely consistent with development that was already occurring.
But it is in the surrounding "walkable catchment" that the biggest changes are likely.
Streets within about a 10-minute walk of Camberwell's centre — which currently feature freestanding homes and some double storey apartment blocks — will now see developments of up to six storeys allowed.
Property agents and developers are watching for potential rezoning alterations.
Although the latest rezoning only came into effect three weeks ago
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The real estate market is already showing signs of response.
For Mr Arbon, the leaflet in his mailbox marked "our initial venture into the realm of real estate agents embracing the proposed, and now realized, modifications," as he elaborated.
He believed that the updated zoning regulations might push property values even higher, as builders vie for space to construct more high-rise apartments.
"You might see groups of neighbours amalgamating to put blocks together to maximise their return," he predicted.
Certainly, the ABC noticed a property for sale sign in the vicinity of Glen Iris, where four homes were listed on one parcel of land—this sign informing prospective purchasers about its new zoning classification as part of an activity center.
Real estate agents and buyers' advocates informed the ABC that they too had observed zoning modifications beginning to influence the property market.
Certain inhabitants are cashing out, while some potential purchasers are being cautious.
Jeff Anderson has spent 40 years as a real estate agent.
He has overseen more than 4,000 auctions and now runs his own enterprise assisting individuals in purchasing homes and consulting major corporations about the real estate scene in Melbourne.
He mentioned that various methods through which rezoning might affect the cost of real estate.
"If you find yourself with a six- or eight-story building constructed beside you, and as a result, your entire view disappears, leaving you only able to see a brick wall... this will likely decrease the value of the property for current owners," he explained.
However, for detached homes that aren’t part of a bigger project nearby, Mr Anderson stated, their worth will keep rising as time goes on.
"As land becomes less available, its value increases since everyone will still desire a place for their family to enjoy outdoor space along with safety and seclusion. Hence, such properties appear poised to maintain an edge over the broader market, whereas other types of real estate lacking this feature may face challenges," he stated.
The real estate agent mentioned that the region might experience considerably more stable pricing for flats should the supply rise substantially — a prospect that he noted was already causing concern among current apartment owners.
He observed that people who own high-quality apartments are selling steadily because of the uncertainties.
He mentioned that several longtime Camberwell residents were either already selling their properties or had plans to do so due to the recent zoning modifications.
He mentioned that many discussions have been happening lately about numerous individuals relocating from the bay area to the Peninsula from either direction, with folks seeking out a seaside lifestyle or a change surrounded by trees.
They aim to escape the overcrowding of what will be prevalent in a few years.
Cate Bakos, a buyers' advocate, concurred that the updated zoning regulations in Camberwell were viewed by some as a lucrative chance, whereas others saw them as a deterrent against purchasing properties.
She cautioned that prospective purchasers should comprehend "precisely which zones are expected to transform and clearly identify their own amenities as well as how neighboring alterations might affect them," she stated.
Leading figure in the industry states that market circumstances remain challenging for builders.
However, despite potential interest from investors, Linda Allison, the Victorian CEO of the Urban Development Institute of Australia, cautioned that progress would probably remain gradual, even with the introduction of updated zoning regulations.
As outlined by her, transforming an idea into actual construction requires a substantial timeframe, often lasting between five to seven years.
Ms Allison noted that although the increased density allowances in the activity centers might improve project finances, she highlighted high interest rates, building expenses, and Victoria’s property taxes as ongoing barriers to apartment development.
The head of development admitted that some locals were not fond of the modifications, yet he emphasized that the demand for additional housing was indeed pressing.
"What really matters is ensuring coming decades have the opportunity to reside in their preferred homes within their desired locations, particularly considering our significant demographic expansion and unprecedented low levels of available rentals," she stated.
Therefore, if we wish for our children and grandchildren to experience similar advantages that we Melburnians have enjoyed over generations, we must become more receptive to various kinds of housing options.
Premier Jacinta Allan echoed this view when she unveiled the new height restrictions for activity centers in February, stating that Victoria had to increase construction efforts to overcome its housing shortage.
"We want more homes for young people and workers close to jobs, transport and services," she said.
Many community volunteers are concerned that numerous residents still fail to grasp the extent of the zoning modifications.
The contentious topics of how Melbourne and its inner eastern suburbs generate additional housing, along with the implications this has for current inhabitants, remain highly debated matters.
In the 10 trial activity centers, the Victorian government expressed hope for adding 60,000 new residences.
The report highlighted that numerous established areas in Melbourne’s eastern region experienced minimal increases in housing development relative to the substantial growth in housing and population observed in many of the city’s outskirts.
However, the magnitude of that planned transformation has stunned and infuriated numerous inhabitants in these areas.
Mr Arbon was extremely annoyed with the real estate agent's pamphlet in his mailbox that he tore it apart.
His main concerns regarding the planning modifications were the increased sizes of developments permitted in residential areas distant from the shopping district, as well as the potential erosion of his suburb’s historical value.
"Although folks grasp the necessity for increased housing density and more affordable homes, they are alarmed and feel helpless," he described the sentiment in his neighborhood.
Christina Branagan has resided in Camberwell for over two decades and has become profoundly troubled by the rezoning adjustments. As a result, she has taken to discussing this issue with her neighbors.
"What I genuinely appreciate about residing here is that we're safeguarding heritage sites for tomorrow, which I firmly believe are top-notch historic neighborhoods on a global scale," she elaborated.
Although she expressed a desire for increased affordability in housing so that her children’s generation could purchase their own homes, she doubted that such measures would lead to more affordable houses in Camberwell, particularly given the area’s extremely high land values.
"What I am actually seeing around my area is a lot of more affordable places like 1930s houses and art deco flats and 1950s units with shared gardens they are actually being demolished … and everything that goes up is luxury apartments, luxury townhouses," she said.
The community receives backing from the City of Boroondara as well, which has similarly voiced its worries regarding heritage safeguards and the magnitude of alterations slated for the "pedestrian-friendly areas".
Deputy Mayor Victor Franco has characterized the state government’s suburban rezoning as the biggest overhaul of Victoria's planning framework in three decades.
Dr. Franco stated that although the heritage overlays would stay in place, it was unclear just how significant these overlays would be under the new zoning regulations.
He explained that this change occurred because the old residential zoning rules required councils to preserve the character and heritage aspects of a neighborhood, whereas the aim of the updated zoning regulations is to promote increased development.
"In the end, it will likely be determined by VCAT (the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal) and the Supreme Court," he forecasted.
However, without a test case reaching the courts, he explained, both residents and developers were left with uncertainty.
I don’t believe these modifications will result in extensive destruction of historically listed residences; instead, gradually, new and unsuitable constructions will diminish the appearance and character of regions presently safeguarded under heritage overlays.
He isn’t the sole organizer who has reservations.
The Victorian government established an ongoing advisory panel consisting of planning professionals. These experts were tasked by the Victorian planning minister with examining various matters concerning the development of new activity centers.
The committee was established on August 22 of last year and submitted its findings in November. However, the report was not made available to the public until April 14, shortly after the zoning adjustments were implemented in the pilot activity centers.
A key suggestion within the report proposed that walkability zoning shouldn’t extend to regions featuring either a heritage overlay or a neighbourhood character overlay.
However, the Victorian government maintained that these new activity centers wouldn’t alter the heritage protections or guidelines. A spokesperson stated, “Our aim is to create additional housing options closer to employment hubs, public transit, and essential amenities—enabling young residents and professionals to reside near their workplaces, transportation links, required facilities, and loved ones.”
A parliamentary investigation into the rezoning adjustments has been conducting hearings throughout April, with a report expected by the end of this month.
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